Categorized | Tea Party


Public Policy Polling ran a poll on 2012 preferences (Thanks to the Humble Libertarian for the original article).  It’s mostly bad news for the GOP.  No one beats Obama in a two person race.  But former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (44-46) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (42-45) do best while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (39-47), former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (41-50) do less well. 

PPP to its credit added Congressman Ron Paul (no “former”, he’s still a member of Congress!) and he did almost as well as Gingrich – President Obama draws 46 and Paul 36%.  But the polling shows that Paul does best among independents:

One thing that’s very interesting about these numbers is that Ron Paul is the most popular out of the whole group with independents. They see him favorably by a 35/25 margin. The only other White House hopeful on positive ground with them is Romney at a +2 spread and they’re very negative on the rest: -5 for Huckabee, -16 for Gingrich and Palin, and -17 for Obama. All five of the possible GOP contenders lead Obama with independents, but Paul does so by the widest margin at 46-28.

The polling analysis suggests something radical:  That Paul run as an independent in 2012. 

Paul’s going to have an interesting choice in the next year or so. If his goal is really to be President rather than to influence the national dialogue then he should probably keep on trying to win the GOP nomination, as improbable as that might be. But if he wants to guarantee himself a major role in the 2012 contest he should run as a third party candidate instead. Polling at 5-10% nationally in the general election would get his views a much wider airing than just trudging along through the Republican nomination process and hoping to get 10-15% in each primary.

An independent Paul run is likely to re-elect the President.  I agree with PPP that Paul should run as a Republican with his libertarian colleague, former Governor Gary Johnson as VP.  (I said exactly this in January at Conflicted Libertarian)  They should run together in 2012 in the GOP primaries with the mission of restoring constitutional government.  It would be exciting and would set up Johnson for a run in 2016.

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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